History in the Making

As I read “The Culture of Connectivity: A Critical History of Social Media,” I realized how rare it is to read a history in which I have played/am playing an active role in its creation. Social Media and the Web has never stopped growing, and as we move on, they continue to grow faster. MySpace used be a major means of connecting online, and in an instant Facebook took over. Now, MySpace might as well be a dinosaur. Having lived in this life where I cannot quite remember not being connected to other people everyday, even if I am sick in bed alone, this history seems irrelevant. Once a website or program is gone and has been dominated by something else it becomes irrelevant to our everyday lives. Then, after reading this, I remembered Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, even WordPress, were created based off the backs of those before them. Social Media is evolutionary and it deserves a history because of its constant involvement in the lives of billions.

2 thoughts on “History in the Making

  1. I identify with your realization that we are playing a role in the history of connectivity as it continues
    to unfold. It reminded me of an email chain my Nana sent to me over the summer about the future of technology. The irony of finding out about technology’s future through a mass-forwarded email felt anachronistic – didn’t email chains stop being a thing after seventh grade? Nevertheless, the projections in the forwarded message speak to the growing global phenomenon of connectivity. I’m pretty resistant to a lot of the predictions in the email, but it seems like some iteration of them is inevitable. Here is the text of the forwarded email if anyone is interested – I think it’s really fascinating and frightening:

    In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon ‘et al’ are……
    There have always been the 3 constants …
    Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

    Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

    Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

    Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

    Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

    In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

    Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

    Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

    It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
    We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

    Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

    Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

    Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

    Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

    Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

    Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

    With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
    Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

    Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
    companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

    3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
    shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office
    building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D
    printed.

    Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
    yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

    If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

    Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

    Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
    Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

    Aeroponic will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

    There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.

    Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency … Of the world!

    Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.

    Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

    Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.

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  2. I agree, even as we are living in a historical period, it’s much harder to see in real time, as opposed to with social media and technological history, because of how rapidly things are progressing and changing, it feels much more real and tangible that we are witnessing history being made. It’s also interesting how new platforms are built on the backs of old ones, when you think about how platforms mimic and borrow from each other as they adapt and innovate to expand its reach. For example, Instagram implementing instastories to mimic Snapchat, in order to appeal to more people and then being more successful than Snapchat was with their stories function. At the same time, many of these social media networks are interconnected and they can be more successful because of the existence of other platforms. As WordPress does, almost every social platform has a Facebook or Twitter share button that allows you to share articles, and seeks to tap into the much larger userbase that these two core platforms share. It’s an interesting mix of corporations seeking to grow their userbase competitively with other platforms but also acknowledging their use, which is unique to social media in how we, as social media users, readily take or are taken advantage of.

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